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Post by Wayne Hall on Dec 17, 2015 14:43:17 GMT -5
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Post by Wayne Hall on Dec 17, 2015 14:44:20 GMT -5
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Post by Wayne Hall on Dec 17, 2015 14:48:09 GMT -5
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Post by Wayne Hall on Dec 17, 2015 14:56:42 GMT -5
ladarayinfo.weebly.com/esr7-bfe--tcon.html
TURKISH CONUNDRUM
The Great Earth Shift, tectonic change and human society
We, as humans, are in the midst of a monumental Earth Shift. What I have labeled Earth Shift is a revolutionary shift of the human world away from the West and towards the East. This is a long and arduous process in the middle of which many forces have been, and will continue, pulling in various directions, in the hopes of accomplishing their own goals. The idea for some of these forces is to gain more territory, power and economic/political advantage. For others, this is the desire to hold on to those advantages they used to enjoy – the advantages now slipping out of their hands. Yet, there are other forces which are destined to play a stabilizing and balancing role. If humanity didn't have the Global Balancer and Stabilizer, we, as the present human civilization, would have stopped to exist in the 20th century. I think my readers know what country I am referring to: it is Russia, the Great Balancer of our planet.
The Great Earth Shift is a time of tectonic change, revolution and confusion in every layer of society and every region of the world. This extreme and often unexpected by most change will continue for the foreseeable future, until humanity finds a new, better and more stable way of cooperating and co-existing on our one planet. So far, humans are failing to find a way to cooperate, preferring wars, old grudges, ego and clandestine undermining of each other. All this, despite the obviousness of the necessity to move towards cooperation and away from confrontation. We need a society where individual's interests are understood, every country and culture no matter how big or small, is respected, while interests of the international community are preserved and taken into account.
With this little spiritually-philosophical intro, let's get back down to Earth. We begin with latest news:
Russian anti-submarine Destroyer Smetlivy, which has just joined the Russian contingent in the Mediterranean, had to fire warning shots at Turkish fishing boat on collision course in Aegean Sea. A Russian destroyer had to open warning fire as a Turkish fishing vessel sailed on a collision course towards it and didn’t respond to calls from the warship, the Russian Defense Ministry reported.
Following the incident, the Russian Defense Ministry warned the Turkish military attaché about “the possible harmful consequences of the reckless actions by Ankara against the Russian military contingent, involved in tackling international terrorism in Syria." “Deep concerns were voiced over another provocative action by the Turkish side against the Russian patrol ship Smetlivy in the Aegean Sea, which forced them to open warning fire… in order to avoid a collision with the Turkish vessel,” the ministry said in a statement. The warning shots came from small arms and were strategically aimed to guarantee the Turkish ship was out of harm’s way, the statement stressed. The incident happened in the northern part of the Aegean Sea some 12 nautical miles from the Greek island of Lemnos, the ministry said. This is the official statement printed on RT.com. See article and video.
And now, let's see what's behind this new incident. As the Greek side confirms, the Russian vessel was at the time anchored in Greek national waters (agreed upon with Greece). The destroyer was stationed near the Greek island of Lemnos. It is through Lemnos and nearby Lesbos that various 'refugees' make their way from Turkey into Europe. It is suspected that at least some of them are in fact ISIL and Islamist militants.
The Turkish ship in question violated the Greek territorial waters. After the Russian Su-24 downing by Turkey, Greece came out with criticism, saying that Turkish planes routinely violated Greek airspace. In fact, it has been determined that Turkish war planes had violated Greek airspace daily, to the tune of 1500 violations in the past couple of years. In addition to airspace violations, this time we are talking territorial waters violation. However, since Turkey and Greece are both members of NATO, Greece can't do anything about it.
The Turkish boat went straight for the anchored Russian ship and collision was imminent. Despite attempts of Russian radio warnings, there was no response. Russian ship fired warning shots after which Turkish boat immediately turned around and sped away.
It's unknown who and what was on board. Was the boat full of explosives and manned by suicide bombers. Very likely. It appears after warning shots they chickened out and fled. If it came any closer, Smetlivy would have been forced to eliminate it. It's easy to imagine what kind of howling would start right after that in Western MSM, who would take out scripts distributed to them ahead of time by the State Dept.
After the Su-24 incident, Russian President Putin gave order to shoot to kill at any persons or devices posing threat to the Russian contingent engaged in Syria. Therefore, the Russian ship had a complete right to act on the approaching threat and shoot at the Turk. However, as we see yet again, Russians showed reason and restraint.
How should we interpret this latest incident? It would appear that Turkey and its 'leadership' have gone mad. There is no way, no matter how you look at it, for Turkey alone to survive a war with Russia. Russia can obliterate Turkey and its entire army pretty quickly, should Turkey push too far.
But Turkey is a member of NATO. Fighting with NATO is a different story for Russia. So, what Turkey is hoping to provoke is a conflict between NATO and Russia, invoking the infamous NATO's mutual defence clause. Su-24 downing was first provocation in this line of events. Turkey is plying with fire, attempting to manufacture a global conflict with assured mutual annihilation. In this scenario USA is far and away, and it has a certain, but not very big chance of partial survival. Russia is very large and also has a minor chance of partial survival. Who doesn't have any chance of survival, who will be in the very middle of this conflict? It's Europe.
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Post by Wayne Hall on Dec 17, 2015 14:58:11 GMT -5
Step one – downing of the Russian Su-24 – has failed. Erdogan ran to NATO for protection against Russian retaliation, and was rebuffed. Despite lip service from NATO and Obama, EU told Erdogan firmly that this was between him and Russia, so please don't involve Europe. I predicted this would happen in Explosive Consequences of Turkey Downing Russian Su-24 Jet in Syria – Complete Analysis and Predictions!
The new provocation with the Russian destroyer Smetlivy while in Greek waters, is step two in Turkish plan to pit NATO and Russia against each other. In this scenario Greece is a member of NATO, member of EU and a long-standing enemy of Turkey, liberated from the Ottoman Empire's yoke by Russia. Although Greece is squeezed pretty tight by EU, IMF and US, pro-Russian moods are prevalent. Politically, Greece secretly wants to side with Russia, but its EU/NATO association and economic realities don't let that happen. Greece certainly wants to support Russia in the case of Turkey. This, therefore is also an unfriendly gesture by Turkey against Greece.
The main conclusion from this last event: there is absolutely no doubt that Turkey is systematically attempting to provoke World War III.
Why? I will illustrate this throughout this report.
Let's recall that Turkey lost two world wars, in both of which it was on the side of Germany. Turkey also once had a huge Ottoman Empire, spanning most of the Middle East and north African shore, as well as all of Caucasus, parts of Central Asia, all of the Balkans and Danube delta, plus northern Black Sea coast – now a part of Ukraine. Turks were brutal and savage in how they ruled those cultures and nations they conquered. Bulgarians, Greeks, Serbs, Moldavians, Valakhians, Transylvanians, Georgians, Russian-Ukrainian Cossacks and Armenians have many gruesome tales to tell about how Turks mistreated them.
Let's also recall that Turkey lost its empire as a result of Russian advancement and liberation of many Orthodox Christian lands surrounding Black and Mediterranean Seas. The little that was left of the former empire, disintegrated as a result of World War I. Who divided the remnants of the former Turkish Empire? Incidentally, that's how Syria was born. That would be Europeans, primarily the British.
Therefore, for Turkey both Europeans and Russians are in fact mortal historic enemies – those who collectively lost them their empire. Of course, the empire built on barbaric and brutal dictatorship couldn't have sustained itself and was bound to fall sooner or later. It appears previous Turkish leadership, beginning with Mustafa Kemal Atatürk credited with creating a secular Republic of Turkey, tried to come to terms with his country's violent past.
But the present government, headed by president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has different goals in mind. It seemed for a time that Erdogan was set to continue the secular and relatively cooperative international tradition Turkey followed in its most recent past. But lately it became clear that Erdogan is in fact a radical Islamist of the Pan-Turkism brand.
It also became clear that he has a revisionist idea for Turkey. His primary objective is to resurrect the Ottoman Empire, aka Osmanic Khalifate.
Erdogan latched on to the resurgence of radical Islamism, militarism and Middle Eastern terrorism as his vehicles to achieve his goal. However, in the world of dog eat dog, such dangerous alliances usually get out of hand as those you think you are manipulating into doing your bidding usually seek to manipulate you. So, when Erdogan thinks he manipulates ISIL or Islamic Brotherhood, these organizations only use Erdogan and Turkey for their purposes and for as long as they think it's expedient.
Simultaneously, Erdogan and his Gray Cardinal Ahmet Davutoglu want to take revenge against those who 'destroyed' their empire – Russians and Europeans. It would have been ideal to pit them again in a world war! But barring that, Erdogan wants to at least weaken both EU and Russia economically, while widening a wedge of distrust and animosity between EU and Russia. Classic divide and conquer, isn't it?
While EU and Russia are weakened and busy fighting each other, Turkey would love to start resurrecting the Ottoman Empire. Keep your rival/enemy occupied with own problems, preferably fighting each other, so they have no time to pay attention to how you are executing a crawling invasion and reconstituting your failed empire.
This might have just worked, if not for one factor: Russia. Russia has been paying attention, even if the rest are asleep or complicit.
Incidentally, in all this, do you notice another party that has almost the same interests as Turkey? Putting a wedge between Russia and EU to prevent them from getting closer economically and politically; preserving its own empire by dividing and conquering; attempting to pit EU and Russia against each other while being safe on the other side of the Atlantic, so both EU and Russia look the other way while enriching itself and executing a crawling invasion of Asia and Europe… Who might that be? That would the US.
In the turmoils that are shaking up Europe, Ukraine, Russia and the Middle East, USA and Turkey are two very twisted allies. It doesn't have to be this way as US should be aligning with Europe. But unfortunately, US has taken the course on weakening the EU in order to shove down its throat TTIP and in order to prevent the formation of the Eurasian Partnership, which would unite Europe, Russia, China and Asia.
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Post by Wayne Hall on Dec 17, 2015 14:59:27 GMT -5
Event No. 2 is tied directly to the above. It is the situation with the Middle Eastern refugees streaming into Europe from Turkey. There are presently over 2 million refugees from Syria in Turkey, at least according to Turkish government. Some of them are in fact from Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya, as well as Pakistan and Africa. About one million or more of these refugees have already crossed into Europe.
What struck the investigative journalists following the European refugee crisis was the incredibly high level of organization of the entire exodus. By no means it was a spontaneous and sudden move of the masses across the Mediterranean. Initially, Turkey loaded ships full of refugees and sent them to Greek shores, where they were unloaded. This feat alone is very expensive and logistically difficult.
Let's recall that we are talking people completely unfamiliar with Europe, its way of life, and speaking no local languages. How did they magically organize themselves into large groups, how did they know exactly which border crossing to go to and what to do there? It turned out that text messages were sent to them telling them where to gather. Each person was assigned a specific group. Tips on how and where to cross, where to stay, where to find taxi and trains were sent daily.
The interesting thing that struck everyone was that the majority of the refugees staunchly wanted to reach Germany. Not only that, but they were given the exact route to take: through Greece or Bulgaria, on to Macedonia, Serbia and into Hungary. Then through Austria to Germany. When Hungary closed its borders, the whole crowd quickly reoriented itself by turning towards Croatia and then onward through Slovenia.
Then there is a very sticky issue – that of money. How and from where did all these people get the money to cross most of Europe. You have to feed yourself and your family, you have to find a place to stay and buy at least basic necessities. Transportation is very expensive. Many of these refugees used taxis to get to Serbian border. I listened to an interview with Serb taxi drivers and they said that a trip from Serb capital Belgrade to the border with Hungary cost 200 euro per person. That's a tiny fraction of the entire journey. How many such little segments did the refugees have to cover? Where did the money come from?
I recall the footage where Hungarian police was trying to give some bottled water to 'refugees' that took over the Budapest train station. Several athletic-looking young refugee men took the crates full of bottled water placed by the police on pavement and threw these crates with disdain onto train tracks. While at it, they showed with their whole attitude that they didn't need anything from the 'infidels.' Besides this being a pollution and hazard for passing trains, someone had to go later onto those tracks and clean up the mess.
Can you imagine refugees behaving this way? Being this ungrateful and contemptuous towards the hosts who are trying to give them water? The impression from the footage was that they came to Hungary as conquerors, not as refugees. But another problem that I see here is the fact that refuges in dire straits should need every help they can get, since they would have very little money, having spent a lot while on the road and needing more to settle down. These had so much money they could afford to throw perfectly good bottled water away?
I want to stress that among these people there were legitimate refugees from Syria, with families, who really needed protection and shelter. But it has been established that only 25% were in fact Syrians. The majority either bought Syrian passports or was from elsewhere. It has also been noted that 80% or more were young and strong men traveling alone. After a criticism that mostly young and strong men were among the refugees, who tended to push away women and children in order to get themselves a better spot, miraculously, more families with women and children began appearing. It was as if an invisible hand painted into the picture additional families to allay suspicions.
So, we are back to the issue of money. Where did all these masses of people get the money to the degree that they would throw away the drink or food offered to them? Credit cards? But didn't they run away from a war in Syria or Iraq? Credit cards aren't commonplace in these countries, especially if these people came from the refugee camps.
Cash? How much cash can one carry across several borders when only limited amounts are allowed? And what about robberies? How can one carry a lot of cash while having to sleep in tents and on the road in unknown countries? If it's cash, then you would carry certain limited amounts, which need to be periodically replenished. So, how does one do it?
A German journalist did his own investigation, attempting to retrace the steps of refugees. It turned out that six months prior to the wave of refugees a whole slew of Western Union offices suddenly sprang up in Bulgaria, on the border with Turkey. How did Western Union know to open a bunch offices in that specific location just prior to the refugee wave hitting Bulgarian shores? It's probably a safe bet to assume that all these Western Union offices will close down again once the wave of refugees subsides.
Therefore, Turkey, Saudis and Qatar organized and financed exodus of refugees to Europe. And we all know who is behind Western Union, as well as most financial flows around the world.
Refugee crisis is part of the revenge for Europe by the Turks. But it's also a way to distract Europeans, while also weakening Europe economically. As many such ops, it's multi-prong.
Erdogan has already achieved a part of his goal with Europe. Merkel caved in and promised Turkey a bribe of 3.3 billion euros, to be paid by EU members, if Erdogan keeps refugees on Turkish shores. Turkey was also promised expedited ascension into the EU with Germany's help. This promise resembled extortion. After all, Turkey had been snubbed by EU for over 40 years, to the point that in 2014 Erdogan complained to Putin about it, semi-jokingly asking if Russia would accept Turkey into Eurasian Union, since EU wasn't willing to admit it.
I can tell you with absolute certainty, most Europeans are in a panic about such possibility, especially the people of Eastern and Southern Europe, who still remember the horrors of the Ottoman Empire. As it is, many Europeans are already uncomfortable having Turkey as part of NATO, especially after the Russian jet's downing. At least some Europeans realize that Turkey's erratic and unpredictable behavior, as they see it, makes the risk of a conflict with Russia all too real. But has EU enough sovereignty to do anything about it? There are EU voices in favor of expelling Turkey from NATO, but these voices are being silenced.
My prediction is that Turkey's admission into the EU won't happen any time soon. This prediction applies only if EU still functions with any semblance of independence from Washington. At this juncture it's entirely possible that there is no sovereignty left at all. In that case EU will do what Washington commands. If they are told to accept Turkey into the EU, they will, over objections of their own people. Should this occur, expect a new existential crisis within the EU, with a number of countries attempting to exit at the same time. Most likely, Germany will be dangling the carrot of EU membership in front of Turkey for as long as possible, trying to get them to behave.
But Turkey is playing its own game. Turkey doesn't want to join the EU. Turkey wants to invade and take over the EU.
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Post by Wayne Hall on Dec 17, 2015 15:00:43 GMT -5
The name of Turkey's game is the resurrection of the mummy called the Ottoman Empire. Can they do it? No, I do not think they will get too far with this project. The world's great powers are united in their desire to keep Turkey in okay shape and strong enough, but not too strong. Turkey's advances will be curbed and it will get a slap on the wrist should the game get too out of hand. This is how it has been for a pretty long time.
But we are presently in uncharted waters. The Great Earth Shift is making any old rules irrelevant. Everyone is trying to play their own game, positioning themselves for the new reality. While EU or US think they wag Turkey, Turkey is pretty confident they can wag both Russia and the West.
Will it work? No, not for long. But the stubborn refusal of the EU and US to cooperate with Russia makes the situation in the Middle East ever so more dangerous and unpredictable, allowing countries like Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia an opening to destabilize the world into World War III. History repeats itself. Manipulation and underhanded dealings by major Western powers created WWI, WWII, Cold War, and other global turmoils of our past. It was never Russia who did that. In fact Russia saved mankind, and especially Europeans, from destruction more than once.
And yet, Russia is consistently treated with suspicion, contempt and animosity. Meanwhile, Turkey, the country proven to have been assisting ISIL and other extremists, involved in oil, sex slave and human organ smuggling, the country that has already downed one plane and could do more damage, is protected and promised the a speedy ascension to the EU.
Europe and US once already protected and helped one little Austrian man with funny mustache come to power in Germany, in the hopes he would serve as their weapon for the destruction of Russia. The rest is our common gruesome history that we seem to be already forgetting!
Will Europeans (and Americans too) ever learn? I'd love to predict an uplifting and positive outcome. Unfortunately, I don't know if I can. The signs so far aren't hopeful and the quality of politicians in Europe and US is catastrophically bad. Is change for the better possible in America when new president is elected in 2016? By the slimmest of margins, and perhaps, despite historic evidence, let's hope so!
Update 12/16/15: That said, my money is not on the EU or US suddenly seeing the light and changing their ways. My money is on Russia, Putin, Lavrov, Shoygu and their team. It is, yet again, up to Russia to make the West listen, see reason (for the sake of their own survival) and to force US/EU too cooperate. We are now in the beginning of this process. Kerry's visit to Moscow and his sudden flip-flop towards 'wanting cooperation' with Russia after two years of bellicose rhetoric and snubbing, is proof of the success of the Russian approach. What's more, Kerry's visit is an admission of US/EU failure in Ukraine and Syria.
ISIL oil = Turkey's bounty It's no secret that Turkey has been the intermediary for ISIL's sales of oil, drugs, ancient Syrian artifacts, human organs and sex slaves. This has intensified in the past year to a degree that it kept Turkish economy going in the midst of a global crisis, at the same time enriching beyond belief Erdogan, his family and his closest political and military associates. Oil is being sold at dumping prices, something to the tune of $20 per barrel, which logically should have contributed to the oil price plunge of 2014-2015. The buyers of this cheap illegal oil were first and foremost the EU, but also all sort of Asian countries, as well as the US. Ukraine also buys oil from Turkey.
As we know, the price of oil took a nose dive in 2014 and has been slowly edging lower in 2015. I described the mechanics of what went on in my article US, Russia and Oil Price Manipulation: The Real Reason OPEC President Was Arrested in London.
I quote: “The most important thing overlooked by many in this scandal is this: Diezani Alison-Madeuke was worried about low oil prices and was planning on calling an emergency meeting to discuss the OPEC strategy change. All this noise about fighting corruption is designed to camouflage something a lot more important: someone wants to pressure OPEC into keeping oil prices low.
About the ‘free’ market hoax and how oil prices are formed We were taught by the Western ‘free market gurus’ that the global market would self-regulate and fair prices would adjust themselves based on supply and demand. This would mean that a few years ago, when oil reached $148, the demand was three times what it’s today, when oil is below $50. Of course this is not the case and the demand for oil is about the same. The economic factors influencing the oil price initially may have been: Chinese economy slowing down slightly and ISIL dumping oil at low prices. Both factors are relatively negligible and couldn’t have worked for long. The way the market usually works, both have already exhausted their depressive potential. Conclusion? Someone is manipulating the market and holding oil prices down artificially. Who and why would do that? OPEC countries are already suffering from low oil prices. For Russia it’s a big problem. Incidentally, on one hand it’s also a problem for the US. American shale oil industry, which uses the expensive and terribly harmful to the environment fracking to extract oil or gas, can’t operate at such low prices and has to stop producing – the only positive that has come out of it. But US government is ready to sacrifice fracking oil profit for political and geopolitical gain. After all, for as long as US/UK control the entire global economic and financial system, even oil profits are small change. As far as US internal politics go: Protests against fracking are on the rise in the US, therefore, conserving the shale oil sites is politically good for Obama and democrats. Secondly, they are intent on keeping gasoline prices low at the pump in pre-election year, in an attempt to bribe voters.
This brings us to the main geopolitical reason! It’s Russia and Putin. When the oil price drop began last year, it was complex. Part of it was the desire of Saudis and OPEC to stop the new rival: the fast expansion of the American shale oil industry. Another factor was ISIL oil dumping. Of course, Chinese economy slowdown and market speculation contributed to that. Initially, hurting the Russian economy was a side effect and a pleasant bonus for countries like Saudi Arabia, UK and US. It was supposed to be a temporary operation. OPEC has exhausted its resources and the minds of some of its members have changed. Many OPEC countries now operate at a loss and start experiencing huge budget gaps. Some have had enough and they can’t wait to start stimulating oil prices. However, sometime during this oil gambit the initiative was overtaken by the US/UK. At one point it became apparent how well it could work to hurt the Russian economy. Therefore, USA resolved to keep oil prices down for as long as possible, pressuring OPEC into doing so by all means necessary. The initial sabotage idea against the Russian economy (it began with Kiev maidan and 2/2014 coup) looked like this:1.Overstretching of Russian finances and economy by making Russia send troops to Ukraine, subsequently having to support the destroyed Ukraine. 2.Creating the image of Russia as an evil dictatorship, headed by evil Putin, resulting in global isolation and subsequent disintegration. 3.Simultaneously, crippling the Russian economy and squeezing Russian financial system, closely integrated into the Western financial network via: anti-Russian sanctions; attempted denial of Visa/MC; disconnection from SWIFT; and most importantly, the attack on the Ruble, resulting in its precipitous drop. All this was designed to squeeze Russian business class, bury Eurasian Union, isolate Russia from any allies, and ultimately, make the population hate Putin. The only thing that did work out in this comprehensive plan was turning Ukraine into a total mess. The rest failed completely. 1. Russia didn’t send troops to Ukraine, as I predicted. 2. Anti-Russian sanctions made Europeans distrust US, rather than Russia; Visa/MC/SWIFT sabotage failed. 3. Eurasian Union is experiencing certain color revolution and economic risks, as I had warned since 2014. But despite the risks, it’s still expanding. 4. While the Ruble drop was hurtful, the Russian economy has re-adjusted. The problems created stimuli for the sorely needed import substitution and building up of Russia’s independent from the West financial and economic system – also, as predicted. 5. While Russia is supporting LNR and DNR (only 2 mln people left), plus millions of refugees from Ukraine, these millions of refugees and Ukraine immigrants do contribute to the Russian economy by working. Meanwhile, US and EU have to support the entire 30-35 million still residing in Ukraine, including paying Gazprom for Ukraine’s gas and providing IMF loans – and this was never part of the plan. 6. Instead of isolation, Russia has been growing her ally and supporter base worldwide. 7. Instead of people hating Putin, his rating continues climbing, both in Russia and abroad. The latest: Putin’s rating surpassed 90% – the highest ever. Out of those 10% or less, only a few dislike Putin. Others feel that Putin isn’t ‘Putin enough,’ in other words, that he should be doing more of what he is doing. 8. Last but not least, Crimea becoming a part of Russia was a huge shock to the West. At least several regions of Ukraine can’t wait to follow Crimea’s example – and that was never part of the plan either.
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Post by Wayne Hall on Dec 17, 2015 15:01:52 GMT -5
Consequently, US/Obama’s (yes, we know that Obama is just a figure-head) policies have been a total fail on all fronts, except the successful destruction of poor Ukraine.
Enter low oil prices…
At one point US managed to hijack the OPEC oil price manipulation. This is easily done by what is known as US secret crash protection team and shorts/derivatives dumping. Incidentally, something similar is being done to keep gold/silver prices down. Once the price manipulation is hijacked, all they have to do is: 1. keep it at a certain level; 2. keep those OPEC countries and execs, who start rebelling, in line. And now we’ve come full circle: the latter is the real reason OPEC President Diezani Alison-Madeuke was arrested in London!
PREDICTION: Therefore, US wants to continue keeping oil prices suppressed for as long as possible in order to continue hurting Russia. This is tied to elections. At a minimum, US, aided by UK and the City of London, will continue manipulating oil prices till US elections. At a maximum, they’d love it if they could keep them low until Russian presidential elections, to try to dampen Putin’s chances. But here is the ultimate timeline: when they finally see that Putin gets re-elected despite all of their efforts, they’ll let it go.” (END QUOTE)
The above article has been written on November 7, 2015 and oil price at the time was about $45-48. As of today, December 14, 2015, oil price is down to about $35.20.
What happened between these two dates? Russia began Syrian campaign and as of the last two weeks, Russian jets and strikes from Caspian and Mediterranean Seas destroyed the majority of ISIL's oil fields, infrastructure, storage and transportation. This means that if oil prices were indeed held down by the inflow of super-cheap ISIL oil from Syria, then logically, right this moment we should be experiencing a great resurgence of oil prices on the hopeful and positive for investors news that this oil glut has gone away. Right? Sure, that would be the case, if we indeed had such a thing as free market.
The fact that the opposite is happening proves that someone is manipulating the market quite skillfully, as we discussed in the above article. Someone is spending billions in cash to continue suppressing oil prices. This is done by flooding the market with naked shorts during slow hours when volume is low, to achieve an exaggerated drop in prices. We all know that the only entity capable of dumping billions of dollars consistently, over and over again, to keep the market going in one direction or another is the United States of America, the country that has a monopoly on the printing press. Only for the US dollars are free – but only for now. The real payback for what the US government is doing will come later.
No other country has this capability and for any other oil-producing country this further price drop is very bad.
Many of the world's private investors and speculators really believed that oil would go up after the Russian strikes, and bet on the increase of oil prices. Now that oil relentlessly plunges, many are forced to liquidate their long positions at a loss as the market continues moving against them. This wave of liquidations has further tipped oil prices lower.
We can see that: 1. my predictions from the Oil Price Manipulation article above are manifesting already, 2. US is determined at all cost to keep Russian economy down, 3. US has willing accomplices in the form of two richest oil/gas producing monarchies: Qatar and Saudi Arabia, who want to retaliate for Russia destroying their multi-billion ISIL investments in Syria, and who are willing to wait out the wave of low prices in exchange for the promise of strangling Russia economically. After all, it worked for the US and OPEC in the '80s. Why not now?
The problem is it's not the 1980s any more. It's 2015. This time it won't work. All that these kinds of moves will achieve is accelerating Russia's transition to a new economic/financial model, away from the rotten US dollar-based system. It will also accelerate Russia's rebalancing to the East, resulting in the center of power swinging away from the US and West. How and when it will happen, we'll discuss in future Earth Shift Reports.
Qatar: Terrorist State Extraordinaire of the Middle East Al Jazeera Network in service to ISIL and Turkey
While ISIL militants and terrorists have been trained, provided rest and convalescent accommodations by Turkey, ISIL at large has been operating based on hefty monetary support of two countries: Qatar and Saudi Arabia. It is now coming out that both of these, but especially Qatar, spent billions of dollars to build ISIL infrastructure in Syria. This infrastructure included: oil production sites and facilities, oil storage depots, pipelines and oil trucks, factories producing suicide bombers' belts and other terror equipment, weapons and munitions factories, mosques and of course info and propaganda support.
It has been noted that videos made by ISIL and other terrorist groups were of superb 'Hollywood' quality. There were very professionally done videos of 'beheadings.' The latest, surprisingly professional footage was that of the Russian Su-24 jet being downed. Subsequently, the same professional crews shot how Turkish extremists called 'gray wolves' posing as Syrian rebels, were trying to kill unarmed Russian pilots attempting to land. Squeals of joy at the event and a proud interview of the Turk who killed the Russian pilot was just as professionally produced.
It has been suggested that Hollywood was in fact hired to produce all these.
The truth is a little different. In fact, the producers were Al Jazeera. This news network, with its supreme modern equipment and professionally trained in the USA journalists was put by Qatar at full disposal of ISIL. Basically, Al Jazeera is now an arm of ISIL, and by association, of the present Turkish regime.
The Al Jazeera network is fully owned by the government of Qatar. This agency once started out trying to portray the news with some semblance of objectivity. I remember their reports regarding Iraq around 2003-4. But it all changed within a few short years as they became progressively more and more the direct weapon of propaganda for their masters' goals.
If you are surprised I am talking about Qatar, and no so much about Saudi Arabia, here is why. In recent years, there has been a crack in relations between US and Saudis. Saudis believe US has been neglecting their interests and a more independent streak has emerged in the newer crop of top politicians of this monarchy. Saudis, much like Israelis, don't get along with Obama. Sure, Obama will be gone in a year and someone else may be much more to their liking. Old ties may be on the upswing. So, I would not put too much into this rift just yet.
But decoupling has begun. This is not due to Obama or anyone else. It's due to the fact that both Israel and Saudis are attempting to reposition themselves ever so slowly for the ongoing Earth Shift – the shift from the West to the East. Saudis are a large enough country and they are able to have some independence in how they operate. Besides, Saudis are starting to experience economic problems as their oil revenues are thinning.
Qatar is a completely different story. It is a puny nothing of a country, with huge annual oil revenue surplusses they have to spend. According to some estimates, present budget surplus they need to spend is $100bln. For the country that size it's HUGE. It would be huge for a country of any size.
This is why Qatar can afford to throw lavish financial support behind ISIL and many other Islamist terrorists. It is well-known that Qatar (and Saudis) have been behind preparation of militants in the 1990s Chechen wars, as well as any terrorists that periodically disturb peace in Russian North Caucasus.
The exact identity of the organizer of the Russian Airbus321 plane bombing in Sinai, Egypt, with all 224 passengers dead, has been revealed. It is Foreign Minister of Qatar Khalid bin Mohammad Al Attiyah. Evgeny Satanovsky, one of perhaps a half a dozen world's top Middle Eastern specialists has named Qatar as culprit from the start. Officially, Russia hasn't named Qatar yet. This is a private opinion with which I happen to agree. Russian authorities may never say the name of the culprit out loud. What's important is what they will do about it. This we will eventually find out in the news - or not.
The question is what does Qatar want. The answer is two-fold:
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Post by Wayne Hall on Dec 17, 2015 15:03:49 GMT -5
Consequently, US/Obama’s (yes, we know that Obama is just a figure-head) policies have been a total fail on all fronts, except the successful destruction of poor Ukraine.
Enter low oil prices…
At one point US managed to hijack the OPEC oil price manipulation. This is easily done by what is known as US secret crash protection team and shorts/derivatives dumping. Incidentally, something similar is being done to keep gold/silver prices down. Once the price manipulation is hijacked, all they have to do is: 1. keep it at a certain level; 2. keep those OPEC countries and execs, who start rebelling, in line. And now we’ve come full circle: the latter is the real reason OPEC President Diezani Alison-Madeuke was arrested in London!
PREDICTION: Therefore, US wants to continue keeping oil prices suppressed for as long as possible in order to continue hurting Russia. This is tied to elections. At a minimum, US, aided by UK and the City of London, will continue manipulating oil prices till US elections. At a maximum, they’d love it if they could keep them low until Russian presidential elections, to try to dampen Putin’s chances. But here is the ultimate timeline: when they finally see that Putin gets re-elected despite all of their efforts, they’ll let it go.” (END QUOTE)
The above article has been written on November 7, 2015 and oil price at the time was about $45-48. As of today, December 14, 2015, oil price is down to about $35.20.
What happened between these two dates? Russia began Syrian campaign and as of the last two weeks, Russian jets and strikes from Caspian and Mediterranean Seas destroyed the majority of ISIL's oil fields, infrastructure, storage and transportation. This means that if oil prices were indeed held down by the inflow of super-cheap ISIL oil from Syria, then logically, right this moment we should be experiencing a great resurgence of oil prices on the hopeful and positive for investors news that this oil glut has gone away. Right? Sure, that would be the case, if we indeed had such a thing as free market.
The fact that the opposite is happening proves that someone is manipulating the market quite skillfully, as we discussed in the above article. Someone is spending billions in cash to continue suppressing oil prices. This is done by flooding the market with naked shorts during slow hours when volume is low, to achieve an exaggerated drop in prices. We all know that the only entity capable of dumping billions of dollars consistently, over and over again, to keep the market going in one direction or another is the United States of America, the country that has a monopoly on the printing press. Only for the US dollars are free – but only for now. The real payback for what the US government is doing will come later.
No other country has this capability and for any other oil-producing country this further price drop is very bad.
Many of the world's private investors and speculators really believed that oil would go up after the Russian strikes, and bet on the increase of oil prices. Now that oil relentlessly plunges, many are forced to liquidate their long positions at a loss as the market continues moving against them. This wave of liquidations has further tipped oil prices lower.
We can see that: 1. my predictions from the Oil Price Manipulation article above are manifesting already, 2. US is determined at all cost to keep Russian economy down, 3. US has willing accomplices in the form of two richest oil/gas producing monarchies: Qatar and Saudi Arabia, who want to retaliate for Russia destroying their multi-billion ISIL investments in Syria, and who are willing to wait out the wave of low prices in exchange for the promise of strangling Russia economically. After all, it worked for the US and OPEC in the '80s. Why not now?
The problem is it's not the 1980s any more. It's 2015. This time it won't work. All that these kinds of moves will achieve is accelerating Russia's transition to a new economic/financial model, away from the rotten US dollar-based system. It will also accelerate Russia's rebalancing to the East, resulting in the center of power swinging away from the US and West. How and when it will happen, we'll discuss in future Earth Shift Reports.
Qatar: Terrorist State Extraordinaire of the Middle East Al Jazeera Network in service to ISIL and Turkey
While ISIL militants and terrorists have been trained, provided rest and convalescent accommodations by Turkey, ISIL at large has been operating based on hefty monetary support of two countries: Qatar and Saudi Arabia. It is now coming out that both of these, but especially Qatar, spent billions of dollars to build ISIL infrastructure in Syria. This infrastructure included: oil production sites and facilities, oil storage depots, pipelines and oil trucks, factories producing suicide bombers' belts and other terror equipment, weapons and munitions factories, mosques and of course info and propaganda support.
It has been noted that videos made by ISIL and other terrorist groups were of superb 'Hollywood' quality. There were very professionally done videos of 'beheadings.' The latest, surprisingly professional footage was that of the Russian Su-24 jet being downed. Subsequently, the same professional crews shot how Turkish extremists called 'gray wolves' posing as Syrian rebels, were trying to kill unarmed Russian pilots attempting to land. Squeals of joy at the event and a proud interview of the Turk who killed the Russian pilot was just as professionally produced.
It has been suggested that Hollywood was in fact hired to produce all these.
The truth is a little different. In fact, the producers were Al Jazeera. This news network, with its supreme modern equipment and professionally trained in the USA journalists was put by Qatar at full disposal of ISIL. Basically, Al Jazeera is now an arm of ISIL, and by association, of the present Turkish regime.
The Al Jazeera network is fully owned by the government of Qatar. This agency once started out trying to portray the news with some semblance of objectivity. I remember their reports regarding Iraq around 2003-4. But it all changed within a few short years as they became progressively more and more the direct weapon of propaganda for their masters' goals.
If you are surprised I am talking about Qatar, and no so much about Saudi Arabia, here is why. In recent years, there has been a crack in relations between US and Saudis. Saudis believe US has been neglecting their interests and a more independent streak has emerged in the newer crop of top politicians of this monarchy. Saudis, much like Israelis, don't get along with Obama. Sure, Obama will be gone in a year and someone else may be much more to their liking. Old ties may be on the upswing. So, I would not put too much into this rift just yet.
But decoupling has begun. This is not due to Obama or anyone else. It's due to the fact that both Israel and Saudis are attempting to reposition themselves ever so slowly for the ongoing Earth Shift – the shift from the West to the East. Saudis are a large enough country and they are able to have some independence in how they operate. Besides, Saudis are starting to experience economic problems as their oil revenues are thinning.
Qatar is a completely different story. It is a puny nothing of a country, with huge annual oil revenue surplusses they have to spend. According to some estimates, present budget surplus they need to spend is $100bln. For the country that size it's HUGE. It would be huge for a country of any size.
This is why Qatar can afford to throw lavish financial support behind ISIL and many other Islamist terrorists. It is well-known that Qatar (and Saudis) have been behind preparation of militants in the 1990s Chechen wars, as well as any terrorists that periodically disturb peace in Russian North Caucasus.
The exact identity of the organizer of the Russian Airbus321 plane bombing in Sinai, Egypt, with all 224 passengers dead, has been revealed. It is Foreign Minister of Qatar Khalid bin Mohammad Al Attiyah. Evgeny Satanovsky, one of perhaps a half a dozen world's top Middle Eastern specialists has named Qatar as culprit from the start. Officially, Russia hasn't named Qatar yet. This is a private opinion with which I happen to agree. Russian authorities may never say the name of the culprit out loud. What's important is what they will do about it. This we will eventually find out in the news - or not.
The question is what does Qatar want. The answer is two-fold:
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Post by Wayne Hall on Dec 17, 2015 15:09:19 GMT -5
1. Qatar's own reasons 2. USA's bidding.
It's clear about USA's bidding. Half of the tiny Qatar is occupied by US military bases.
Qatar's real reasons for financing terrorists
But what are Qatar's own reasons? The one on the surface is gas pipeline to the EU. Qatar is awash not only in oil but also in natural gas. Qatar's long-standing wet dream has been to build a pipeline to the Mediterranean shore and across the sea to the EU, thus replacing Russian gas supply. Qatar for years has been supported in this by the US. In fact, Qatar was promised this new toy – the EU gas market – by the US, in concert with USA's EU vassals.
For the US the reason for allowing Qatar the pipeline is the same as oil price manipulation: the economic destruction of Russia. For Qatar – the good old money. But there is something more, which both Americans and Europeans completely fail to take into account.
It is the resurgent idea of the Islamic Khalifate – the old and powerful Middle Eastern empire, be it Ottoman, or any other. It is the increasingly gaining traction extreme Islamist idea of revenge against any infidels – read: you and me – who once 'destroyed' the great Khalifate.
There are different manifestations of this idea, from ISIL-Daesh to pan-Turkism and Ottoman Empire, and everything in between. This geopolitical component is being grossly underestimated and overlooked behind the economic component.
I had said this before in ESR1 reloaded: IS PUTIN PART OF NWO? And I'll say it again. We are in the era when economy doesn't trump politics any more. At this time in human development geopolitics supersedes and dictates economics. It is the time when various world powers, large and small, are vying for the place in the new global set up. Earth Shift will change the balance of power and the new spread will emerge. If you have secured a place for your country in this new set up, good economy will follow. If not – too bad.
Back to Qatar: it was a good plan. Yet, there was one country preventing the wet dream of Qatar to replace Russia as gas supplier to the EU - Syria. Syria was decidedly secular and pretty inclusive as far as various branches of Islam and other religions. This was a serious affront to the rigid Islamists of Qatar. In addition, Syria and Assad refused to play ball and allow the pipeline through their territory.
In 2007-08 it was decided to replace Assad and dismember Syria. Yet Assad turned out to be made of sterner stuff than anyone expected. In addition, Iran came to his help, knowing it would be next. But what really messed up all of their plans was Russia.
It has to be noted that Qatar for years played a very devious game with Russia. Since the '90s Qatar kept promising huge investments into Russian economy, basically leading Russians on, until it became clear that this was only for show and the real reason for Qatar's promises was to lull the gullible Russians into sleep, while preparing a coup behind their backs.
Russians were indeed gullible in the '90s. They thought the solution to all their troubles was to follow Western economic model, since theirs appeared to have failed. Yeltsin's American advisers told them that the only way to get Russian economy going again was to attract a lot of foreign investments. Only foreign investments, they were told, brought money and fresh blood into the economy, thus stimulating it. You can find out what was really done under the guise of foreign investments from the book by John Perkins Confessions of an Economic Hit Man.
Twenty odd years later, Russians are still waiting for foreign investments into their economy. Incidentally, so do Ukrainians, who had done everything they were told by their Western masters, destroying lucrative economic relations with Russia in favor of being 'Europeans.' Ukrainians destroyed their entire economy per Western advice, weanwhile the investments failed to materialize.
But Russians aren't waiting for investments any more. They finally got it. If only silly Ukrainians understood that they were being had, just like Russians prior to them! If only they understood that the real plan for the silly, gullible Ukrainians is to self-destruct and try to drag Russia with them.
I have to say that the behavior of Turkey and Erdogan in the past five or so years is reminiscent of Qatar's behavior. Lots of promises and smiles to Putin's face, camouflaging sneaky adversarial actions behind Russia's back.
Of course the difference between Qatar and Turkey is that Qatar has zero economic relations with Russia and Turkey has benefited quite handsomely from a very broad spectrum of economic partnerships. That's what makes Erdogan's actions, essentially crossing off everything that has been achieved, especially incongruent. Or they would have been incongruent, should Erdogan really been thinking about the good of his people. What it does prove again is that geopolitics and internal politics outweigh economics in our day and age.
Qatar was a pirate state when it was first formed in the 18th century. Its population lived off piracy. And these were not the cool or romantic 'Pirates of the Caribbean' – the likes of Jack Sparrow. They were hard core, savage and barbaric Middle Eastern super-bandits, who instilled trepidation into the bravest of sailors. It meant nothing to them to kill or torture their victims in the most gruesome way. It went on until the British came and restored order, using equally cruel means. Having been taken away the income from the profitable piracy, locals barely survived on fishing and pearl diving, until oil and gas were found in those parts. Suddenly, those few still left in those parts after the lean years, got fabulously rich.
Rich or not, the same blood of the barbaric Middle Eastern bandits runs through the veins of today's Qataris, beneath the thin veneer of seeming culture induced by wealth. It meant nothing to them to blow up the Russian passenger plane full of women, children and peaceful families on board.
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Post by Wayne Hall on Dec 17, 2015 15:10:28 GMT -5
Who is behind Russian passenger plane catastrophe over Sinai, Egypt?
The reason for the bombing of the Russian civilian plane in Egypt was three-fold, as such ops often are. The idea of any multi-prong op is this: if all goals can't be achieved, at least some are. This is how US/CIA, as well as UK/MI5-6 always operate. I'd say that any good intelligence operates like this. This way, any operation isn't a total loss. We can say that Qataris at the very minimum got some good tips from their brethren on both sides of the Atlantic.
So, the three reasons:
1. Russia just began her air operation in Syria. Qatar was the biggest investor into ISIL infrastructure. Can you imagine how many billion dollars were lost as a result of Russian bombings of all those underground compounds, munitions factories and oil fields! Plus, how many militants trained by Turkey, financed and supported by Qatar were lost in all those smart bomb hits! One – it was retaliation. Just like it's common in the Middle East, they wouldn't dare attack the Russian army directly. They would much rather attack unsuspecting peaceful families with children, returning from what was supposed to be a nice vacation.
2. It was an attempt to create a backlash in Russia against Syrian operation, thus forcing withdrawal of Russian jets from Syrian airspace. Simultaneously, it was supposed to be an event causing Vladimir Putin's rating to take a nose dive. None of this was achieved.
Who wants to sabotage good relations between Russia and Egypt?
3. There was one more, exceptionally devious reason. Putin and Egyptian President Abdel el-Sisi hit it off very nicely in 2014-15. The relations between Egypt and Russia have developed by leaps and bounds. Russian tourism to Egypt constituted before the bombing above 70% of Egypt's tourism revenue. Russia and Turkey agreed on developing a free trade zone along Suez Canal. Plus, new massive infrastructure and energy projects, Russian weapons deals and more, were announced.
Egypt was getting too close to Russia. The idea was that after such catastrophe, Russia would have to withdraw all of her tourism business from Egypt and cause huge difficulties for the Egyptian economy. This goal of sabotaging tourism was achieved. Russia stopped all tourism and air traffic to Egypt.
This further was supposed to dampen Russia-Egypt relations, putting a wedge of mutual distrust between them. This wasn't achieved as Sisi confirmed that strategic relations with Russia were his country's priority, despite setbacks.
Let's recall what I wrote repeatedly regarding Ukraine conflict. One of the major goals for the US was to put a solid wedge between Russia and EU/Germany, and of course, also a wedge between Russia and Ukraine. In Ukraine/EU's case this goal was achieved.
I wrote also how US tried to put a wedge between Russia and China via the Georgian conflict of 2008, deliberately started during the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics. But China turned out much wiser than EU and Ukraine.
Egypt was much wiser, too.
Incidentally, here is how it is clear to me that specifically Qatar, and not Saudis, was behind the attack on the Russian passenger plane. Egypt and Saudi Arabia are close allies in the Middle East. In fact, Saudis finance Egypt's army and el-Sisi is on very good terms with Saudis. Egypt's army is probably the strongest in the Middle East, and Saudis who have lots of money and expensive military toys they acquired from the US, are poor warriors. They often outsource military and security ops to Egypt. Egyptians wouldn't do such a thing to their closest military partner – they simply don't need to – Egypt is already pretty dependent on them.
At the same time, Saudis and Qatar, being both Sunni monarchies, USA's allies and financiers of Islamist terrorism, are each other's biggest rivals and enemies. There is an all-encompassing hatred between them - the situation that suits the US just fine.
There were also voices that Israel was behind the Russian Airbus bombing in Sinai. Only those who have no idea of what's going on in the region would say that. For Israel this would not only be pointless, but also harmful. In the Middle East, Israel has only one relative ally, with whom they maintain relatively friendly relations and who always acted as a balancer between Israel and Arabs. It is Egypt.
Russia is very important to Israel as well, both regionally and globally. In ESR5: SYRIA GAME CHANGER I discuss how Russia's intervention in Syria is important and desirable for Israel. Why would Israel ever damage relations with the only two relative allies it has in the Middle East?
IN ESR6: UKRAINE-NEW KHAZARIAN KHAGANATE I also discuss the Russian lobby in Israel. 25% of the population of Israel – probably much more by now – is Russian-speaking. This, incidentally, accounts for the beginning of a turn-around of Israel and its slow distancing from Anglo-American world.
The only Middle Eastern country that directly benefited from the downing of the Russian Airbus in Sinai was Qatar.
There were voices suggesting the puny thing like Qatar could easily be bombed by Russia in retaliation. Not really. The thing is, it's a tiny place. Therefore, one half of it is occupied by American military bases. To paraphrase a Russian saying, I'd say: 'in Qatar you can't spit without hitting an American base.'
And now it becomes clear why the puny Qatar, awash in money but without its own army to speak of, is so audacious. Because they know that Russia can't retaliate due to American presence.
From here it's not any stretch of imagination to see who REALLY is behind Qatar's deeds, either by silent encouragement or direct complicity.
USA, as the heir to the British Empire, has become exceptionally skilled in manipulating people's lowly emotions and vices for their purposes. Of course this manipulation often gets out of hand as the monster US has created acquires a life of its own, but it still achieves at least one purpose – the creation of the managed chaos. Well, lately, not so managed any more. But compared to the rest of the struggling world, USA still looks good, and that's all that matters.
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Post by Wayne Hall on Dec 17, 2015 15:11:28 GMT -5
The secret link between Qatar and Turkey
There has to be no illusions whatsoever that Turkey-ISIL-Qatar-USA-Western elites are the links of the same chain. It's a proxy war, puppet master's manipulation, war between different local and global interests, info war, and 4D war – all wrapped together in one colorful wrapper.
It is known that Qatar has been generously paying Turkey for training ISIL/Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist extremists. Qatar and Saudis finance suicide bombers, according to Satanovsky and other Russian sources. Preparing each suicide bomber is an extremely expensive proposition.
Qatar has also been paying Turkey for resorts and rehabilitation centers where militants and terrorists go to replenish their health and heal their battle wounds. Turkey's tourism constitutes 25% of the country's economy. At least it used to, before Russian tourism was withdrawn following the downing of Su-24. Turkey has thousands of various hotels, resorts and medical convalescent facilities. As it came out, all of these are used to house ISIL militants on vacation. Chances are peaceful families from Russia, UK, Germany, US and elsewhere have been vacationing next to them.
It appears to me that Turkey can say good bye to its tourism as soon as all these revelations hit the mainstream.
After the downing of Su-24, Russia announced preliminary sanctions against Turkey. Among them were a ban on Turkish produce, closure of flights to Turkey and withdrawal of Russian tourism. Visa-free regime has been revoked. Other mutual economic projects are under scrutiny. For certain, many more measures will be announced come January 1, 2016. But rest assured that the biggest moves will be made by Putin – this master of the unexpected – when neither Erdogan/Turkey, nor anyone else, expects.
After Russia announced the withdrawal of tourism and other economic measures, what do you think Qatar said? Qatar immediately promised “to reimburse Turkey for all losses from the withdrawal of Russian business.”
How Russia spoiled Turkey, Qatar and USA's game
So, the system worked like a well-oiled machine. ISIL was created, infrastructure paid for by Qatar, militants trained and rehabilitated by Turkey, cover provided by the US. What's not to like?
Very few know that before 2007-08, Erdogan and Assad were best friends.
Then, around 2008 US and Qatar advised Erdogan that Syria's fate was sealed and that Assad would be soon gone. At that point, Syria would become up for grabs.
What does Erdogan do? He makes a 180 degree turn around. He becomes anti-Assad because he sees an opportunity to grab as much of Syrian territory as possible.
At about the same time a Turkish professor Ahmet Davutoglu releases the second, much expanded edition of his book, Strategic Depth (sort of like Mein Kampf of the Middle East, albeit much more academic). In this second edition Davutoglu proclaims very definitively that Turkey's goal should be to resurrect Ottoman Empire at its highest point.
Syria's weakness presented a great starting point. Little by little Turkey created a fantasy nation that doesn't exist in reality – 'Turkomen' and moved them into northern areas of Syria across the Turkish border, which Assad couldn't control.
A reader left a comment on FT that Erdogan did warn Russia not to bomb their 'Turkmen' along Syrian border. This reader is a victim of the same propaganda that says white is black and vice versa. There is no such known ethnicity or nationality in Syria or Turkey that is called 'Turkmen.' Turkmen live in Central Asia and have a state called Turkmenistan, aka, Turkmenia, a former Soviet Republic of.
The people touted as Turkomen (or Turkamen) are a figment of Erdogan and Davutoglu's imagination. In fact, these are militants and it appears, also their families, who are a mixed lot. Some were recruited from Chechnya and North Caucasus, some from Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. These poor lost souls were convinced that they are in fact Turkomen. Others are Turks themselves and even Kosovo Albanians.
At the same time, Turkey had moved to become the indispensable intermediary for ISIL oil, drug and artifact sales. One of the gruesome distinctions of Turkey is that it's now world's No. 1 center for the human organ trafficking, having surpassed Kosovo.
The whole thing worked very well for a while. Qatar financed the whole operation, Turkey provided its territory for all kinds of unsavory dealings, US covered the whole thing…
And then, in November 2015, Russia showed up and spoiled their party. Within several first days, Russian jets destroyed most of the carefully built ISIL military infrastructure, including underground bunkers and factories, terrorist training centers and arms depots. The retaliation for that was the bombing of the Russian plane in Sinai.
Then Russia proceeded to destroy oil fields, oil storage sites and kilometers upon kilometers of oil truck convoys moving to Turkey. This was when Turkey snapped. After all, Russia was destroying Erdogan family's personal cash cow. The downing of Su-24 followed.
The idea was the same as before: scare the Russians into withdrawing from Syria, or make them so afraid to move around as to render their jets ineffectual.
As I predicted in: Explosive Consequences of Turkey Downing Russian Su-24 Jet in Syria – Complete Analysis and Predictions! just the opposite effect was achieved. The area near Turkish border where terrorists (Turkish extremist 'Gray Wolves' posing as Turkomen), who killed Russian pilot and marine, was blanket bombed. Whoever was in that area, didn't survive. This allowed Assad's army to take control of that sector of the Turkish border. Russia sent S-400s and additional war ships to cover the area from land and sea. More fighter jets were added. Russia is now building two bases in Syria, instead of proposed one. In other words, Russia is boosting her presence in the region.
All in all, the attack achieved the opposite result from what was intended. Turkey and Erdogan are in a very difficult and precarious situation. USA/NATO/EU are in an ambiguous situation as well. Let's see why.
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Post by Wayne Hall on Dec 17, 2015 15:12:32 GMT -5
It's 1944 all over again! The US/Germany/UK/France game in Syria
Russia spoiled the game in Syria. This put pressure on US and EU at large to do something as well.
For France it is a matter of national self-esteem. Paris has just been bombed. Hollande has to show he is doing something to avenge the victims. France has a legitimate reason to be bombing ISIL. This is why Putin told Russian navy and airforce to treat French as allies in Syria. Hollande also tried to help set up Russia-NATO coalition. He honestly went to see Obama, but was told that no coalition with Russia can happen. Then Hollande flew to Moscow on a pretty empty visit. The only thing Hollande was able to do was to show up and say a few diplomatic words that France and Russia were together, blah, blah. This was the end of conversation about coalition. This could have been predicted. The best result that can be achieved at this point is a silent disagreement of France and a few other countries with Washington.
US, Germany and UK are in Syria because they see that Russia has been successful in clearing a large portion of the country from terrorists. They are trying to preserve the few militants they had financed still left there. They are also trying to see if they can keep any ISIL oil fields from being destroyed by Russia.
Another goal they have is to try to secure some sort of alliance with the Kurdish side. Plus, there is a positioning taking place as to who will storm the ISIL capital Raqqah.
All in all, it looks a lot like 1944. At that time Russian/Soviet Army already liberated all of the USSR. When it became clear that Russians were about to roll across the entire Europe, liberating it all on their own, US/UK finally opened the Second Front to participate in the spoils of victory. The biggest battles and by far incomparably larger losses were all sustained on the Eastern Front, while US/UK had a relatively easy stroll across Western Europe. Yet, they participated in the spoils equally with the USSR, and then some. They were there at the last moment to pick up lots of Nazi criminals and hide them from justice because they were useful in future clandestine war against USSR. They are trying to pull something similar here with ISIL, Turkey and others.
I believe that despite unfavorable circumstances Putin and Lavrov will manage to pull together some sort of an agreement with NATO and US/UK/Germany/France. Russia's bargaining position has improved very dramatically after Russia's Syria intervention. Russia's interest at this point is to get more boots on the ground to finish off ISIL in Syria, but they don't want to put their own people in harms way.
Still, it's clear that Syrian army is exhausted and can't advance any more; more troops are required in order to clear all of Syria. So, where would one get more troops?
Russians are attempting to create a scenario where NATO troops would be forced to work with them in Syria. This puts US/NATO in an ambiguous situation as they can't openly say they want to support ISIL. It may be slow going and it is clear that NATO will cheat. But the presence of NATO troops will still stop the biggest atrocities. The presence of France and Germany may serve as a containment factor against US intentions. It appears no one is keen on putting their own boots on the ground though. At this time, it looks like lots of negotiations and maneuvering are taking place as how many troops will there be and who will send them.
A news crossed the wires that 100,000 troops would be in Syria soon to fight ISIL. Out of these, 10,000 is supposedly from the US, while the rest is from Qatar, Jordan, Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and possibly, Turkey. First, it's not very likely that these kinds of troops will help the situation. They may instead aggravate it. Second, where will these troops come from? Qatar, with all its wealth and huffing and puffing, has the army numbering 8,500 soldiers. Kuwait has an equally small force. Saudis have more, but they are already tied up in Yemen and they are suffering losses. So do others. As to Turkey, they do have NATO's second largest army after US. But letting them into Syria is like letting a wolf guard the sheep. It's not likely that either Russia or Assad will agree to that.
What is Turkey's army doing in Iraq?
After Russians destroyed ISIL oil infrastructure and oil routes from Syria to Turkey, Erdogan wasn't only livid. He also lost a large chunk of his wealth and income. As soon as he realized that NATO wouldn't fight Russia on his behalf, he decided that he needed to somehow salvage the situation. It was clear that Syria was over for him.
Instead, he sent 600 troops, 27 tanks, mortars and other hardware into northern Iraq, claiming that Iraqi prime minister asked for his help. Iraqi PM denied he ever asked for Erdogan's help and Iraq complained to the UN Security Council, demanding Turkey leaves immediately. Erdogan called Iraq's UN complaint 'dishonest.' Not getting a warm welcome from Iraqi government, Erdogan flipped, saying that local Kurds invited him, which was also denied. Of course, Iraqi Kurds aren't exactly the same as Turkish ones. But considering that Erdogan and Turkish Kurds are at loggerheads, to the point of Erdogan staging false flag terror attacks and conducting open warfare against his Kurdish population, it's very unlikely that Kurds across the border would ask him for help.
Therefore, Erdogan sent his troops to Iraq, attempting to secure northern Iraq oil fields to replace the loss of the Syrian ones.
As I said, every country is attempting to position itself as well as possible for the Earth Shift. Most are doing it more subtly and smartly. Erdogan is attempting to revive Ottoman Empire in a very crude, arrogant and obvious way. Through their actions, Turkey and Erdogan managed to alienate pretty much everyone and failed to secure any real allies.
In addition, it's sort of an affront, a tantrum – a middle finger of sorts – to the US, after US didn't defend him more in the row with Russia. Sort of like sending a million refugees to Europe was a middle finger to the EU. Erdogan fancies himself as indispensable for the West in this part of the world. In a way he is right – Turkey does occupy a very important strategic position, controlling the straits and being the threat for the soft underbelly of Russia. Turkey is full of US/NATO bases. But Turkey doesn't equal Erdogan. Erdogan is dispensable.
World's largest ethnos without a state: the wild card of the Kurds
I have described in detail the situation with the Kurds in ESR5: SYRIA GAME CHANGER.
Let's summarize the most important points. When the Brits were carving up the Middle East into states, Kurds were divided between four countries: Syria, Iraq, Iran and Turkey. They have been fighting for independence and the creation of their own state Kurdistan ever since. Kurds are very well organized, with their own local 'governments' depending on the state, army, print and TV propaganda machine, as well their own flag, but no country.
The differences between Kurds by state are pretty significant due to differences in each state's policies. Only in Iraq Kurds have a de-facto broad autonomy, which they self-govern. This autonomy was very closely supported by USA before and during Iraq invasion in order to secure allies. Northern Iraq is where oil is, so Iraqi Kurds are in a very good position economically, with a serious political bargaining chip.
Syrian Kurds had so self-organize in order to defend their cities against ISIL. They have achieved good proficiency at self-defence and successfully taking back from ISIL their cities. With Russia's intermediary role, Kurds may be close to forming an alliance with Assad, who would agree to federalization a broad autonomy for Syrian Kurds, thus solving this long-standing problem. Should this happen, Assad's army will become 50,000 stronger and ISIL will be out so much faster. This is why US/UK announced they are sending troops to 'support' Syrian Kurds. In reality, the troops and 'advisers' are necessary to dissuade Kurds from making up with Assad.
Syrian Kurds prefer the help of the Russians. After the downing of the Russian jet, Kurds sent a message to Putin and Russia: 'If Russia arms us with missile systems, we will avenge the Russian pilots.' Russia is cautious about that - perhaps too cautious. If Russians don't help Kurds, which is what those prefer, they will take the help of Americans.
Iranian Kurds aren't in as good of a position and Iranian government is irritated when someone supports Kurds. But it's not nearly as bad as the situation with Kurds in Turkey. Erdogan and Turkish Kurds have been in a state of virtual war for years. Then the truce was signed. Since 2013-14, the war spiked again. Part of it is Erdogan's own idiotic, inconsistent and undemocratic policies. Last year Erdogan was behind at least two terrorist acts that targeted Kurds, with many dead; he has been arresting Kurdish activists, shutting down journalists who told the truth; shooting Kurds who tried to cross over to Syria to help their brothers fight ISIL, etc.
But let's be fair: part of the escalation of the standoff was due to enormous pressure Erdogan did receive after he attempted to get close to Russia. The pressure was enormous and it came from US and Qatar. Kurds, whether they realized it or not, were sometimes used as a weapon against Erdogan. I wrote about that in some of my earlier articles.
As a result, in part Erdogan caved in to that pressure and began backtracking on Russian deals, and in part, he was bought with massive profits from ISIL oil and illegal smuggling. The good, old stick and carrot is still so devilishly effective!
How could Russia counter such effectively devilish system? After all, Russia only offered carrots, no sticks, believing that Erdogan would do what was right by his country and people.
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Post by Wayne Hall on Dec 17, 2015 15:13:26 GMT -5
TURKEY and ERDOGAN
Who gave order to shoot down Russian Su-24 jet?
We have discussed in detail the downing of the Russian jet by Turkey in Syria, including analysis and my predictions of the wide-ranging consequences. Please read it here: Explosive Consequences of Turkey Downing Russian Su-24 Jet in Syria – Complete Analysis and Predictions!
Let's recap what happened. Russian Su-24 bomber was returning from a sortie, having bombed ISIL oil targets. Due to an agreement USA previously signed with Russia, implying data sharing and military non-collision, if not cooperation, Russian bomber was flying without what would be a usual accompaniment of the two fighter jets. The agreement was signed by the USA on behalf of all NATO countries and all members of the American coalition. This exposed Russian data to all these countries, including Turkey, a member of NATO.
Therefore, Turkey knew the exact flight pattern of the Russians jets, they also knew that this heavy bomber was not designed to fight or withstand an attack, and they knew that Russian jet flew unaccompanied. Russians flew that way every day – it was a normal occurrence. There is an absolute certainty that it was a well-prepared ambush, and that the order for the ambush could have been only given by the head of the Turkish state, Erdogan.
Syrian navy base used by Russian jets is located about 40 km from the Turkish border. Due to the prevailing winds in these parts, Russian bombers have to approach the landing from the north. In that area, the Turkish territory cuts very deeply into Syrian territory, forming a sort of very irregular narrow and long appendix. Due to the speed of such planes, the Russian jet at the very most could have been over Turkish appendix for 15-17 seconds. Most likely, it wasn't on the Turkish side at all, as the infra-red photo evidence demonstrated.
The Russian jet was ambushed on Syrian side, one km away from the Turkish border. Three Turkish jets waited in hiding and turned in such a way as to be behind Su-24. Then one of the Turks fired. When Russian pilots ejected and tried to land, they were shot at from the ground from both regular and heavy weapons. Pilot was shot several times into his legs and subsequently killed while still in the air. Co-pilot managed to land unharmed and was later rescued by the Syrian/Iranian army.
As the situation began unfolding and as soon as Russians realized their jet was attacked, Russian command at the base sent a rescue helicopter with marines. I believe they acted in haste, trying to save their comrades. They didn't know the lay of the land, had no knowledge of who was on the ground, how they were armed and what could be expected of them. It appears Russian command operated under an impression that there was no one on the ground at the time. They were wrong!
Russian rescue helicopter was blown up as it landed and one marine killed. The rest of the group returned to the base. What Russians should have done was to coordinate immediately with Syrians, who would know how to operate in that area. And as we know, Syrians, together with Iranian ground troops succeeded in rescuing the co-pilot.
Of course, what also betrayed Russians was that they didn't expect such stupid and devious behavior from the Turks. Turkey immediately announced that the area in Syria next to the Turkish border was theirs and that any Russian plane flying there would be downed. Erdogan and his various spokesmen also said they were protecting the Turkomen. 'These are our people who reside in Syria and we will protect them at all cost' was Turkey's message.
Indeed, YouTube videos that appeared almost immediately showed jubilant armed and bearded men, who yelled with great joy as they watched Russian jet falling to the ground in a great ball of fire. The footage also showed unarmed Russian pilots being shot at and bombed from heavy weapons, while they tried to land. One of the 'Turkomen' later proudly confessed to cameras that he was the one to kill the Russian pilot. This man turned out to be a Turk and son of a mayor of one of the Turkish cities. It also turned out that he was a member of the Turkish extremist nationalist organization called Gray Wolves. In other words, Turkomen were Turks, who, taking advantage of the Syrian army being weakened by ISIL, simply moved across the border and attempted to claim a chunk of Syrian territory as their own.
Why was it that Russians sent a rescue helicopter without any special protection? They were convinced the ground was clear and that there were no hostile forces there. So, where did the Gray Wolves come from? How did they know to be at the best vantage point in order to shoot the Russian pilots? We already discussed that the TV crews at the ambush site were extremely professional. TV and video professionals noted immediately that the footage of the falling Russian jet, as well as the ejecting pilots was done from multiple, well-chosen vantage points with the Hollywood film quality.
This means that the ambush was extremely well planned and coordinated. It was supposed to be a huge international event. It was in fact planned to put Turkey on the map as the only country that dared (!) to shoot down a Russian jet. This was supposed to raise Erdogan's stock in his country and among Muslims world-wide. See how strong Turkish army is, they boasted – we shot down Russian jet and got away with it. See, we are so strong that we were able to do what US and NATO would never dare to do.
Is Erdogan mad or is this a part of a well-though-out plan?
Erdogan's actions made a lot of people scratch their heads. Is he crazy to do something like this? What dividends could he possibly gain? Russia has so many ways of retaliating… Militarily, Russia can obliterate Turkey without once stepping on the ground. Politically and from a humanitarian perspective, of course, it's a different story and that's why Russia won't do it. But there are so many economic and political pressure points that one has to be a madman with severe Napoleonic complex to do something like this. It has to be someone who is ready sacrifice the economy of his country, the good of his citizens, extremely lucrative relations with his close and important neighbor, and so much more. For any good politician the risks are incalculable, while upside is questionable at best.
From a normal logical point of view Erdogan seems to have lost his nerve after Russia destroyed ISIL oil infrastructure. Russia also released data, proving publicly that ISIL oil was delivered to Turkey, from where it was then sold to other countries. Further, Russia proved that Erdogan and his family controlled ISIL oil business. Therefore, after Russia's intervention, Erdogan and his sons and relatives fronting this illegal trade lost billions.
There is also a huge synthetic drug trade. ISIL has factories in Syria that produce a new synthetic drug that gets sold to the EU. It appears they invented this new drug – there are many very well-educated people among ISIL. In Europe this new synthetic drug can be purchased in night clubs, underground joints and sex oriented establishments for something like 12-15 euro per dose. Therefore, we can say that Europeans are financing ISIL.
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Post by Wayne Hall on Dec 17, 2015 15:14:25 GMT -5
Devolution of Erdogan and Turkey
Some suggest that Erdogan was absolutely rational when he gave an order to shoot down the Russian jet.
For years, it appeared Turkey and Erdogan were holding their own against the West and USA. They seemed to develop their own policies of good relations with their neighbors. Erdogan announced the policy of 'zero problems with neighbors,' while US had been finding Erdogan to be unpredictable and unreliable.
Russia and Putin seemed to be able to exploit this fact by developing a good relationship with Erdogan. Strategic partnership with seminal projects, such Turkish Stream, were offered to Erdogan on a platter. It seemed to work, until one day it snapped. With surprise, Russians discovered Erdogan's Turkey simply couldn't be trusted.
Assad discovered this much earlier. Before 2007-8 Erdogan and Assad were on best terms. Then seemingly out of the blue, Assad-Erdogan relations turned sour. As we discussed above, two things happened at the same time.
Event one: USA, Qatar and Saudis announced that they wanted to replace Assad. Turkey and Erdogan were advised by USA and Qatar that ousting of Assad and dismemberment of Syria was a given. Therefore, Turkey was either invited to join the fray on their side, trying to chop off any piece of Syrian territory they could get their hands on while everyone was looking the other way. Or if not, they were risking not to be included into the final bounty distribution. Of course, Turkey said – we are in. Relations with Syria soured, but Turkey felt that rather than being a good neighbor they had a better deal if they could get their hands on the juicy bits of their neighbor's land.
Event two: Turkish PM Ahmet Davutoğlu released second edition of his book Strategic Depth. It provides a strategy for Turkish 'destiny.' In fact it's a roadmap for the resurrection of the Ottoman Empire.
Check out this recent article regarding Strategic Depth being translated into Bulgarian and lauded by Bulgarian minister. Let me remind you that Bulgaria was one of the Slavic and Orthodox countries under Ottoman yoke for centuries, until Russia liberated it in the end of 19th century. Despite that, it has been suggested that Bulgarian elites always betrayed Russia when it was profitable to them.
Bulgaria in the dark: from Ottoman Empire to NATO and EU
But betraying Russia is one thing. They do much worse – they routinely betray their own people. There are ongoing protests in Bulgaria against NATO and for improving relations with Russia. But the government is entirely in the pocket of the US and Western elites. It is a completely anti-Russian, anti-its-own-national interests puppet government composed of US Manchurian Candidates. The people have no say in the affairs of the state.
Some people in Bulgaria come out on streets every week for almost two years to express support to Russia and to demand exiting NATO, but nothing happens. Russians and Bulgarians are very close. There is a very warm and friendly attitude in Bulgaria towards Russia, and many Bulgarians work and live in Russia. But because of the usual Bulgarian government's siding with the opposite side in every war, including WWI and WWII, Russia this time isn't too keen on rescuing Bulgaria from the new conundrum they have gotten themselves into.
Read my recent article, which explains all you need to know about Bulgaria: Bulgaria Returning to Native Shores: ‘Thank you Russia – 1878 and 1945’.
Russia – Turkey Relations
All this time Russia and Turkey were developing their mutual trade. Millions of Russian tourists went annually to Turkey and Turkish produce became common in Russian hypermarkets. Russia sold $15 bln worth of natural gas annually to Turkey via Blue Stream pipeline laid across the bottom of Black Sea. As Russian relations with the West soured in 2014 over Ukraine and Crimea, Erdogan and Putin became especially active in various trade deals and negotiations. Russia offered Turkey a large chunk of agricultural produce contracts taken away from European producers. Turkey now supplied $3 bln worth of foods to Russia annually. Russia also offered Turkey some energy projects, which would have put Turkey on the map as a major global distributor and producer of energy.
One of them was an extremely lucrative Turkish Stream gas pipeline, projected to be laid across Black Sea. Turkish Stream was to replace South Stream, which was supposed to deliver Russian gas to Europe. South Stream had to be scratched after Bulgaria succumbed to the US pressure and refused to let the pipeline go through its territory.
Another project was just too good to be true: Russia would build a new nuclear power station for Turkey, using Russian money, materials and specialists. Essentially, Turkey only owed Russia a portion of future profits from the sale of electricity, deferred until after station was well into its working cycle. In other words, Turkey would get almost free electricity, while Russia would get nothing for years.
In 2014 Erdogan kept joking that he was ready to join Eurasian Union and he hoped Russia would say yes, since EU continued snubbing Turkey. The relationship was progressing so well that Turkey became 'dear friend.' Visa-free regime was established between two countries.
Throughout the first half of 2015, the 2014 agreements began stalling, but Russians kept the relationship as positive as possible. There was a major balancing act between supporting Syria and maintaining a decent relationship with Turkey. At one point Russia managed to get Turkey to lower anti-Assad rhetoric. It appeared that Erdogan was listening to Russia.
I'll tell you more. One of the reasons Russia began working on Turkish Stream and other energy projects last year was to counter-weigh the Qatar influence. Logically, what Russia offered was extremely lucrative for Turkey. Its leadership, if they valued the future of their country and well-being of their people should have jumped on it. The projects offered required no outlay of cash from Turkey, but they also were a proposed multi-year cash cow. But yes, they required some work in setting up infrastructure, as well as they took some time to develop. They also offered an opportunity of a strategic partnership with Russia. Seemingly, who would say no? How would one beat such offers!
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